Optimalisasi Pemanfaatan Preferential Trade Agreement Indonesia - Peru
Ahmad Heri Firdaus & Ely Nurhayati | 02/03/2020 | Halaman telah dikunjungi 77 kali
Indonesia's foreign trade activities still depend a lot on traditional markets. Most of Indonesia's exports are only controlled by five main countries. In 2018, Indonesia's five main export markets consisting of China, Japan, the United States, India and Singapore controlled 50.92% of the total value of Indonesia's exports. The discourse to diversify the market has been around for a long time, but until now the realization of increasing exports in new markets has not been reflected in Indonesia's foreign trade activities.The recent Indonesia-Peru plan to improve economic cooperation can be the first step for Indonesia to start diversifying markets and opening new markets, especially new markets in Latin America. Indeed, bilateral relations between Indonesia and Peru have lasted a long time. The two countries have established cooperation in the political, economic, cultural and other fields through various forums such as the World Trade Organization (WTO), the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). Cooperation between Indonesia and Peru has recently been planned to be increased, one of which is in the field of trade.
This study analyzed the impact of the application of the Indonesia-Peruvian PTA policy on Indonesian and Peruvian export-import using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model. This study also analyzed the Indonesia-Peru Trade Index to determine the competitiveness of export and import commodities to be studied. The methods used to analyze the Indonesia-Peru trade index are Trade Complementary Index (TCI), Export Product Dynamic (EPD), and Relative Purchasing Capacity Index (RPCI). The export-import time series data used are import-export data for five years, from 2014 to 2018. The commodities analyzed are 6-digit HS commodities whose data is available for the past five years. The commodity is a derivative of the ten largest export commodities in the 4 digit HS. Analysis of the GTAP model shows that the Indonesia-Peruvian PTA policy will benefit both countries. The TCI analysis showed that the level of complementarity of the exports of the two countries falls into the moderate category or quite complementary in trade. EPD analysis showed that the market position of most of the Indonesian commodities studied shows a favorable position (rising star position). Meanwhile, Peruvian export cooperation to Indonesia has great potential in the five commodities studied. Based on the results of the RPCI analysis, almost all of Peru's import demand for Indonesia in the commodities studied is relatively higher than global demand. For Indonesian imported commodities from Peru, the results of the RPCI analysis show almost the same thing. Almost all Indonesian import demand for Peru in the commodities studied is relatively higher than global demand.
Download Working Paper