Determinan Neraca Transaksi Berjalan Indonesia

Abdul Manap Pulungan | 05/06/2020 | Halaman telah dikunjungi 657 kali


This study aims to analyze the current account determinants in Indonesia, which exerts literature reviews. Firstly, the Indonesian trade balance is gradually deficit in the last few years that worsens the current account deficit. It is because the country significantly depends on oil, gas, and manufacturing imports. Meanwhile, the export worth is mainly raw material and concentrates only in 13 countries. Secondly, the current account deficit relates to limited domestic savings so that the country should access cross-border. Finally, the fiscal deficit jeopardies the current account deficit because it increases public debt and stimulates capital outflow.

To improve the trade balance, the government should increase manufacturing export. Indonesia also needs to develop trade deals with the same level of the economy instead of with developed countries. In terms of import, the government has to extend its biodiesel programs and adds more downstream industries. The tourism industry is an entry point to lessen the service balance deficit. However, the industry requires a high quality of human resources rather than only offers a low-cost service. The income balance deficit may improve by increasing domestic direct investment, accelerating financial deepening, and implements a holding maturity for portfolio investment. To accelerate domestic saving, policymakers manage of the middle-income population by minimizing price intervention such as BPJS premium, fuel price, highway tariff, and electricity cost. Aside from that, the government needs to reform the tax income since it has highly dependent on the commodity price and manufacturing sector. It is also necessary to save several disbursements such as for the meetings and work visit expenditures with information technology.


Download Working Paper